San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-3
- Yu DarvishPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lindor doubled to left, Guillorme scored and Nimmo scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 7Escobar hit sacrifice fly to left, Canha scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3McNeil doubled to right, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored, McNeil to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Fair odds
- NYM -110
- SD +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–15th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.