Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Tellez hit sacrifice fly to right, Yelich scored, Adames to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Grisham homered to right center (381 feet), Carpenter scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Brosseau homered to center (413 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Machado homered to right center (380 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Tellez homered to right (370 feet), Yelich scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- MIL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | MIL: Colin Rea (no track record yet) · SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.