San Diego Padres at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pham singled to left, Alonso scored, McNeil to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Nimmo singled to right, Escobar scored, Nido to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Alonso homered to left center (431 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Lindor homered to left (367 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Nimmo doubled to center, Pham scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Soto homered to right center (453 feet), Machado scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Fair odds
- NYM -112
- SD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.