Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle WrightPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grissom singled to right, Albies scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pasquantino homered to right (376 feet), Witt Jr. scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Reyes singled to left, Perez scored, Isbel to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Albies homered to right (376 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Witt Jr. grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Reyes scored, Lopez out at second, Duffy to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Olson tripled to right, Hilliard scored and Acuña Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +6 Elo | ATL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–1 | Road vs home | 1–830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.