Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting4-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth walked, Soto scored, Cruz to second, Bogaerts to third.3–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 43–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 8Cruz walked, Azocar scored, Bogaerts to second, Soto to third.3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 43–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 7Cronenworth homered to center (410 feet), Bogaerts scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Soto scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Cronenworth homered to right center (372 feet), Cruz scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Winker hit by pitch, Caratini scored, Wiemer to second, Turang to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Machado singled to left, Grisham scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Cronenworth singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Cruz to third.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Cruz singled to left, Soto scored, Bogaerts to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Anderson singled to right, Winker scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +18 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.4 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.