Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to right center (440 feet), Hilliard scored and Acuña Jr. scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Soto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grisham scored, Machado out at second.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Albies homered to center (398 feet), Olson scored and Murphy scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Murphy homered to left center (421 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pillar hit a ground rule double, Murphy scored, Grissom to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -103
- ATL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Road vs home | 4–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.