Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-3
- Wade MileyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-4
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 2Anderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Mitchell scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- MIL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −8 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +16 Elo | MIL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.