Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle WrightPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Abreu singled to right, Dubón scored, Alvarez to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Julks singled to left, Peña scored, Julks to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Albies homered to left center (421 feet), Olson scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Tucker homered to center (410 feet), J. Abreu scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Alvarez homered to right (414 feet), Bregman scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Murphy homered to left center (434 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- HOU +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.