Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to center (405 feet), Dubón scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Dubón doubled to center, Meyers scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Meyers singled to right, Diaz scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Diaz doubled to right, Julks to home on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr., Diaz to third.2–4
- 7Diaz doubled to right, Julks to home on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr., Diaz to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 1Grissom singled to left, Albies scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Albies doubled to center, Murphy scored and Riley scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Riley doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bregman doubled to center, Dubón scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -116
- HOU +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.75th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.