Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña homered to left center (359 feet), J. Abreu scored and Tucker scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Tucker singled to center, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu to second.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8J. Abreu singled to left, Bregman scored and Dubón scored, Alvarez to second.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Merrifield doubled to left, Espinal scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Meyers doubled to center, Hensley scored and Peña scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -108
- TOR +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −14 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.711th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 5–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.