Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Jose UrquidyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker singled to right, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Alvarez singled to right, Dubón scored, Bregman to second.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Bichette singled to right, Merrifield scored, Espinal to second.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Espinal singled to right, Belt scored, Merrifield to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Chapman homered to right center (373 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to right (367 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +18 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +34 Elo | HOU 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.