Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett HampsonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan singled to left, Freeman scored, Gallagher to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Cooper hit sacrifice fly to center, Hampson scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Hampson singled to center, Berti scored, Fortes to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 4Hampson doubled to center, Fortes scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Gonzalez singled to left, Straw scored, Bell to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- MIA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −11 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +3 Elo | MIA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.