Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Devin SmeltzerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7García singled to center, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Arraez singled to right, Berti scored and Soler scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6De La Cruz homered to right (353 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Bell doubled to right, Rosario scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Segura scored and Stallings safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rosario, Gurriel to second.2–0
- 2Segura scored on error, Stallings safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rosario, Gurriel to second.2–0
- 2Segura scored on error, Stallings safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Rosario, Gurriel to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Gurriel singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Segura to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | MIA: Devin Smeltzer (no track record yet) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +43 Elo | CLE 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.