Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell doubled to left, Gonzalez scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Ramírez homered to right (420 feet), Rosario scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Ruiz doubled to center, García scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Straw singled to right, Giménez scored, Brennan to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Brennan singled to center, Bell scored, Giménez to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Straw singled to center, Giménez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Ruiz singled to right, Candelario scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Candelario doubled to right, Meneses scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −13 | CLE: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Chad Kuhl: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +7 Elo | WSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.