Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brennan grounded out to shortstop, Giménez scored, Brennan out at first, Gonzalez to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Ramírez walked, Brennan scored, Rosario to second, Kwan to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 43–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Bell homered to center (410 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Naylor grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Rosario scored, Ramírez out at second.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Call singled to center, Abrams scored and Thomas scored, Robles to second.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4García homered to center (400 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.