Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6McMahon walked, Tovar scored, Bryant to second, Blackmon to third.6–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 46–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6Blackmon singled to center, Díaz scored, Tovar to third.6–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Díaz doubled to center, Montero scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Daza grounded out to first, Moustakas scored, Montero to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Call scored on Hand wild pitch, Ruiz to second on wild pitch by Hand, Smith to third on wild pitch by Hand.6–3
- 6Call scored on Hand wild pitch, Ruiz to second on wild pitch by Hand, Smith to third on wild pitch by Hand.6–3
- 6Ruiz walked, Robles scored, Smith to second, Call to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 45–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Smith walked, Vargas scored, Call to second, Robles to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 44–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Profar homered to right center (417 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Smith grounded into fielder's choice to second, Call scored, Candelario out at second.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -110
- WSH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −22 | WSH: Chad Kuhl: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +9 Elo | COL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.424th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–217th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.