Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Mike MoustakasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to right, Montero scored and Profar scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Moustakas homered to right center (439 feet), McMahon scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Robles sacrificed to first, Thomas scored, Chavis to second.7–2
- 7Candelario singled to right, Garrett scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6McMahon hit sacrifice fly to left, Daza scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Serven doubled to left, Castro scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Garrett singled to left, Abrams scored and Call scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Garrett homered to center (432 feet), Robles scored and Call scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +30 Elo | COL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −1.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.