Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Alex CallBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Cron.10–5
- 8Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Cron.10–5
- 8Smith scored on error, Ruiz safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Cron.10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 8Smith singled to right, Meneses scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Bryant singled to right, Tovar scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Profar grounded out to shortstop, Daza scored, Tovar to third.8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 38–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Tovar doubled to right, Díaz scored, Daza to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Call hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored, Robles to third.8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 5Abrams tripled to right, Thomas scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Daza singled to right, Montero scored, Díaz thrown out at third.6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 3Abrams tripled to center, García scored and Thomas scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -111
- WSH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Urena: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +4 Elo | COL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.4 | Runs scored | 3.324th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.