Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bryant singled to left, Tovar scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +41 Elo | COL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 5.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −1.722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.