Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Zach PlesacPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Bell grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ramírez scored.6–7
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 12Naylor grounded out to first, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.6–6
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 12Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.6–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 11Brennan singled to right, Giménez scored.5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 11Giménez doubled to left, Naylor scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 11Wong hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelenic scored.5–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 11Kelenic doubled to right, Raleigh scored.4–3
- 11Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Brennan doubled to right, Giménez scored and Naylor scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 9La Stella grounded out to first, Hernández scored, Kelenic to second.3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −17 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Zach Plesac: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +9 Elo | CLE 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.