Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4
- Aaron CivalePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodríguez homered to left center (386 feet), Crawford scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Crawford doubled to center, Kelenic scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5France singled to left, Crawford scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Crawford doubled to left, Hummel scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Straw singled to left, Giménez scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Bell singled to right, Rosario scored, Naylor thrown out at third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Rosario scored, Naylor to second, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Gilbert.0–1
- 1Rosario scored on Gilbert wild pitch, Naylor to second on wild pitch by Gilbert, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Gilbert.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +17 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.49th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.