Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting3-5
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez doubled to second, Straw scored, Rosario to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Straw doubled to right, Giménez scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Suárez singled to left, France scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Kelenic singled to right, France scored, Raleigh to second, Suárez to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Suárez singled to left, Rodríguez scored, France to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.