Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Robles grounded into fielder's choice to second, Smith scored, Chavis out at second.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Abrams grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ruiz scored, Robles out at second.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Candelario singled to center, Call scored and Thomas scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Thomas reached on infield single to second, Chavis scored on error, Call to second, Thomas to second, Call safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Rengifo.2–4
- 4Thomas reached on infield single to second, Chavis scored on error, Call to second, Thomas to second, Call safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Rengifo.2–4
- 4Thomas reached on infield single to second, Chavis scored on error, Call to second, Thomas to second, Call safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Rengifo.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Urshela doubled to third, Rengifo scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Renfroe homered to center (400 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Abrams singled to right, Smith scored, Robles to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Rengifo singled to right, Renfroe scored and Trout scored, Drury to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.8 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −18 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +17 Elo | LAA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 6.22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.