New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Guardians- Mike ZuninoBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Zunino doubled to left, Bell scored, Brennan to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Brennan hit sacrifice fly to left, Giménez scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Stanton doubled to center, Torres scored and Judge scored, Rizzo to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.011th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–217th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.