New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman homered to right (408 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Judge homered to left center (385 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Santander doubled to right, Mountcastle scored and Rutschman scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5F. Cordero homered to right (383 feet), Trevino scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Judge homered to center (416 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Stanton singled to right, Judge scored, Rizzo to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Tyler Wells (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.38th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 5.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.