New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4
- Cole IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Stanton homered to left center (436 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, LeMahieu scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5LeMahieu doubled to left, Volpe scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Hicks singled to center, Rizzo scored, Torres to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Santander hit sacrifice fly to right, Mullins scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −6 | NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +8 Elo | NYY 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.