New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Franchy CorderoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cabrera singled to right, Stanton scored, Torres to second.6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Urías scored on J. Cordero wild pitch.5–7
- 7Urías scored on J. Cordero wild pitch.5–7
- 7Urías doubled to center, Mountcastle scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Rutschman singled to left, Mateo scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Cabrera doubled to center, Torres scored and Stanton scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4F. Cordero homered to right center (411 feet), Cabrera scored and Trevino scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Henderson doubled to center, Santander scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Hays grounded into fielder's choice to second, Urías scored, Frazier safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Torres.0–2
- 2Hays grounded into fielder's choice to second, Urías scored, Frazier safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Torres.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Frazier singled to right, Henderson scored, Urías to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +10 Elo | BAL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.76th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 5.725th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.