New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Franchy CorderoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Calhoun grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rizzo scored, Torres out at second.11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 6Judge scored on Curry wild pitch, Rizzo to second on wild pitch by Curry.10–2
- 6Judge scored on Curry wild pitch, Rizzo to second on wild pitch by Curry.10–2
- 6Rizzo singled to right, Hicks scored, Judge to third.9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Torres grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, LeMahieu scored, Rizzo out at second, Judge to third.8–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Rizzo singled to center, Hicks scored, Judge to second, LeMahieu to third.7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3F. Cordero homered to right (368 feet), Torres scored and Calhoun scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Rizzo scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Calhoun singled to center, LeMahieu scored, Torres to second, Rizzo to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Trevino singled to right, Cabrera scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Giménez scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +9 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +2 Elo | CLE 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.