Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-3
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-3
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Hoppe singled to right, Drury scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Phillips walked, Renfroe scored, Drury to second, Rengifo to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 42–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4García grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored, Ruiz to second, Meneses to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Meneses singled to right, Candelario scored, Smith to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Phillips scored on throwing error by catcher Ruiz.0–1
- 3Phillips scored on throwing error by catcher Ruiz.0–1
- 3Phillips scored on throwing error by catcher Ruiz.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −5 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.65th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.46th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.