Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Josiah GrayPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Hoppe homered to left center (414 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Rendon hit sacrifice fly to right, Ward scored, Trout to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +16 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +34 Elo | LAA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.712th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.