New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Franchy CorderoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peyton BattenfieldPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabrera singled to right, Torres scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7F. Cordero homered to center (439 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Higashioka singled to center, Cabrera scored, Kiner-Falefa to third. Kiner-Falefa scored and Higashioka to second on throwing error by second baseman Giménez.2–3
- 5Higashioka singled to center, Cabrera scored on error and Kiner-Falefa scored on throwing error by second baseman Giménez, Higashioka to second.2–3
- 5Higashioka singled to center, Cabrera scored on error and Kiner-Falefa scored on throwing error by second baseman Giménez, Higashioka to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Rosario homered to right center (387 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Bell singled to right, Ramírez scored, Naylor to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- NYY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Peyton Battenfield (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.5 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.