Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses singled to right, Abrams scored, Smith to second.6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Garrett scored, Abrams to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 7García homered to right (430 feet), Candelario scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 7Arias grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Straw scored, Kwan out at second.6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Kwan singled to left, Brennan scored, Straw to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Candelario homered to right (401 feet).4–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Bell doubled to left, Kwan scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Straw scored on error by third baseman Candelario, Kwan stole second.3–2
- 3Straw scored on error by third baseman Candelario, Kwan stole second.3–2
- 3Straw scored on error by third baseman Candelario, Kwan stole second.3–2
- 3Kwan singled to center, Brennan scored, Straw to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.6 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +2 | CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.424th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 1–729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.