Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Oscar GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carpenter homered to right (363 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Carpenter doubled to right, Greene scored, Báez to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Báez singled to left, Haase scored, Greene to second.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Gonzalez homered to left (424 feet), Bell scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Bell doubled to right, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Báez hit sacrifice fly to left, Maton scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | CLE: Hunter Gaddis: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +17 Elo | DET 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −2.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.