San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Cabrera singled to center, Torkelson scored.6–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Torkelson singled to left, Báez scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Báez doubled to left, Greene scored and Maton scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 12 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McKinstry scored, Haase safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Crawford.6–3
- 5Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McKinstry scored on error, Haase safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Crawford.6–3
- 5Vierling grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McKinstry scored on error, Haase safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Crawford.6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5McKinstry doubled to right, Baddoo scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- SF +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 5.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +2 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Michael Lorenzen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 6.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −2.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.