Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-3
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- David VillarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford homered to right (366 feet).0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Villar homered to center (403 feet), Yastrzemski scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pederson doubled to right, Conforto scored and Wade Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Fair odds
- SF -107
- LAD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +8 Elo | LAD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 4.814th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.