Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-3, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Muncy homered to left center (380 feet), Betts scored, Freeman scored and Smith scored.9–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Betts singled to center, Outman scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Flores homered to left (369 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Muncy homered to center (405 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Betts homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.715th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.