San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Maton homered to right center (387 feet), Kreidler scored and McKinstry scored.5–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 11Wade Jr. singled to left, Villar scored, Crawford to second.5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Davis homered to right (374 feet), Estrada scored and Yastrzemski scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Báez doubled to left, Greene scored and Vierling scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Greene tripled to center, Vierling scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored, Haase to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Estrada homered to center (441 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −16 | SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 6.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −3.329th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 0–330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.