Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada homered to left center (387 feet).10–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–4
- 7Flores singled to right, Bart scored, Estrada to second.10–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 310–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 7Thompson homered to left center (426 feet), Vargas scored.10–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 6Muncy homered to right (367 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored, Betts to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 6Freeman walked, Thompson scored, Betts to second, Taylor to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 15 : Ball 44–3
- 6Pitch 14 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 13 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- LAD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +19 Elo | SF 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.