San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-4
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soler homered to center (413 feet), Segura scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Arraez singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Sánchez scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Villar doubled to center, Ruf scored and Flores scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Ramos doubled to left, Bart scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -115
- SF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +19 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +45 Elo | MIA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.717th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.