San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Berti doubled to right, García scored.5–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 11Yastrzemski homered to right (366 feet), Villar scored.5–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 11Conforto homered to center (407 feet), Estrada scored.3–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Cooper singled to left, Hampson scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Ruf doubled to left, Flores scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Fair odds
- MIA -116
- SF +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +10 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +36 Elo | MIA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 7–58th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.