San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right (391 feet), Soler scored and De La Cruz scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Berti hit sacrifice fly to right, Stallings scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Yastrzemski homered to right (380 feet), Estrada scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- SF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −2 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.525th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.