Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McKinstry homered to right (363 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (417 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Ramírez homered to right (392 feet), Kwan scored and Giménez scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.227th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.