Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jean SeguraBatting1-3
- Edward CabreraPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Sam HilliardBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies tripled to center, Olson scored, Riley scored and Murphy scored.0–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 6Riley homered to left center (395 feet), Olson scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Hilliard homered to right center (458 feet).0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–5
- 5Rosario homered to center (410 feet), Riley scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Hilliard homered to center (415 feet), Ozuna scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Murphy homered to left center (430 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +45 Elo | ATL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.