Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Avisail GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez doubled to center, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 8García homered to center (417 feet), Soler scored and De La Cruz scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rosario scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Brennan second, Bell safe at third on error.1–6
- 7Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rosario scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Brennan second, Bell safe at third on error.1–6
- 7Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rosario scored on throwing error by catcher Fortes, Brennan second, Bell safe at third on error.1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 7Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Bell doubled to left, Rosario scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Bell homered to left (386 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Ramírez homered to center (424 feet), Rosario scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Berti homered to right center (402 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −5 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.