Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel homered to left (349 feet).4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Albies homered to left center (400 feet).3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Rosario homered to left (362 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8García singled to left, Soler scored, De La Cruz to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, Hampson scored, Soler to second.2–5
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Albies homered to left center (400 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Pillar doubled to left, Grissom scored, Hilliard to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Hilliard singled to left, Rosario scored, Grissom to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Grissom singled to right, Murphy scored, Rosario to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | MIA: Bryan Hoeing (no track record yet) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.