Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Albies scored on throwing error by pitcher Floro, Ozuna second, Grissom safe at third on error.4–6
- 8Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Albies scored on throwing error by pitcher Floro, Ozuna second, Grissom safe at third on error.4–6
- 8Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Albies scored on throwing error by pitcher Floro, Ozuna second, Grissom safe at third on error.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Grissom singled to right, Rosario scored, Albies to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Rosario tripled to right, Solak scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Olson homered to right (352 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Grissom singled to left, Riley scored, Albies to second, Rosario thrown out at home.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to center (442 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Berti walked, Cooper scored, García to second, Soler to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 44–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4García homered to left (428 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to center (418 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.