San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner tripled to left, Mancini scored, Gomes scored and Velázquez scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Gomes singled to right, Wisdom scored, Mancini to third.0–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Gomes homered to center (405 feet), Mancini scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +15 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +59 Elo | CHC 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 6–719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.