San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Matt CarpenterBatting3-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter SolomonPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCarthy homered to right center (412 feet).7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Gurriel Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Carroll scored, Gurriel Jr. out at first.7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Ahmed homered to left (408 feet).7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Thomas homered to right center (422 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Carpenter doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Cronenworth doubled to right, Bogaerts scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Carpenter homered to right (368 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Longoria hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored, Carroll to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to left, Cronenworth scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Carpenter doubled to center, Bogaerts scored and Machado scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- SD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Drey Jameson: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +17 Elo | ARI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.