San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Josh RojasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grisham doubled to center, Cruz scored and Bogaerts scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. scored on Wacha wild pitch.5–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. scored on Wacha wild pitch.5–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Rojas scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 4Rojas singled to left, Thomas scored and Perdomo scored, Rojas to second.5–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Carpenter homered to right (361 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Bogaerts homered to left center (405 feet), Soto scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Perdomo tripled to right, Thomas scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Grisham doubled to right, Carpenter scored and Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -115
- SD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +33 Elo | ARI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.