Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burleson homered to right (393 feet), Edman scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Smith homered to center (414 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker scored and Carroll scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Marte homered to left center (409 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Contreras doubled to center, Donovan scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Marte singled to center, Rojas scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +16 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.